“Comprehensive second child” in the second year, why birth population decrease

low fertility intention is the important cause of the cost of raising a child is too high, and many professional women worry about birth two children will cause a change in the position or influence promotion, adding that recessive employment discrimination.

, the Beijing news reported on January 18th, the national bureau of statistics, according to data released in 2017, the national birth population of 17.23 million people, 630000 people less than last year.

for this data, the author does not feel strange. In general, the effect of policy implementation in the first year is the most significant, the effect of the second year in a second, third year is more thoroughly.

2016 is the second child policy implementation, the first year of birth population reached 17.86 million, an increase of 1.31 million than the previous year, is China’s most populous country in the new born since 2000 a year. Reason is that many couples nonexclusive although want to have two children in the past, but the policy does not permit, so these couple of pent-up before second child birth will release was concentrated at the beginning of the open policy.

was born in 2017 population decline, heralding the second child birth peak has passed. In the next few years, our country of birth population will continue to reduce. There are several reasons:

a second child birth accumulation effect on the policy of the first two years of most has been released.

young population continues to decline. Population of Chinese academy of social sciences scholar guang-zhou wang did according to the sixth census data estimates show that China’s 18 to 44, youth population in 2017 to 2017, 2022 will be reduced to 518 million, five years to reduce the more than three thousand, ten thousand people.

the third is the improvement of urbanization level. Both in China and other countries in the world, there is a common situation: rural fertility rate is higher, the city fertility rate is low. With the speeding up of urbanization process, the fertility rate will decline.

4 is a sound social security system. & other; Support & throughout; Rural residents have more children before the economic motivation is gradually weakened and disappear.

two child policy implementation in 2016, many experts predicted that 2017 would be baby boom, but was born in 2017 population data show that many experts have overestimated the couples of child-bearing age intend to have two children. Low fertility intention is the important cause of the cost of raising a child is too high, and many professional women worry about birth two children will cause a change in the position or influence promotion, adding that recessive employment discrimination.

in 2017, our country not only born population is reduced, but also reduces the working-age population. 16 to 59 of 2016, China’s working-age population 907.47 million people, while the population of the age of 2017 only 901.99 million people, 5.48 million people. This is since 2012, China’s working-age population decline in six years in a row.

at the time of birth population and decline in the working-age population, the aging population of our country further improved. Over 60 of 2016, China’s population proportion is 16.7%, compared to 17.3% in 2017. To solve the problem of aging, both need to improve the social pension security system and develop the pension industry, of course, also need to appropriate improve fertility.

/He Yafu (population)

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